Market News

Wheat up on weather concerns, lower dollar

Soybeans were mixed, with nearby contracts down and deferred months up. Brazil’s harvest is close to 70% complete and harvest conditions are favorable in most of Argentina. Export demand for U.S. beans is slow, largely because of the South American price advantage. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers and CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil are both set for April 10^th. Export inspections down on the week and the year, but still more than what’s needed to meet projections for the marketing year, which is just over the halfway point. The top destinations were China and Mexico. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. The NOPA says member firms crushed 177.9 million bushels of soybeans in February, under expectations and below a year ago, with bean oil stocks topping pre-report estimates.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is monitoring South America, with warmer, drier weather expected in some areas, potentially stressing developing crops. Stateside, the trade’s watching weather ahead of widespread U.S. planting with concerns about dry conditions in portions of the western Corn Belt. The USDA’s 2025 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are both out on the 31^st. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be solid. Export inspections were below a week ago, but above a year ago, mainly to Japan and Mexico, and the overall pace remains ahead of last marketing year by a good margin.

The wheat complex was higher on speculative and technical buying, along with the weakness in the dollar during the session. Dry weather is a concern in the southern U.S. Plains, Black Sea region, and Eastern Europe. Some of the U.S. soft red winter crop might have been damaged by recent storms. Still, unless it was an outright loss, the full extent of damage to that part of the U.S. winter wheat crop, or the full extent of damage from potential winterkill to hard red winter, won’t really be known until harvest gets underway. The trade’s also watching conditions ahead of spring wheat planting in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. The prospect of a deal to end Russia’s war on Ukraine remains uncertain. Commodities in general are continuing to brace for the impact of more tariff activity between the U.S. and several key trading partners like Canada, China, the European Union, and Mexico. U.S. export inspections were larger than the previous week and a year ago, staying on track to meet the USDA’s recent lower estimate for the current marketing year. Last week’s leading destinations were South Korea and Japan.