Market News

Wheat wilts on profit taking, dollar strength

Soybeans were mixed. Brazil’s harvest is about 40% complete and while some estimates have been trimmed due to weather issues, it still looks like a record large crop. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers is out March 10^th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crop is set for the 13^th. The USDA says 228 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in January 2026, down 2 million on the month, but up 15 million on the year. Soybean meal stocks declined year-over-year, while soybean oil stocks rose as the industry anticipates strong biodiesel demand. Soybean oil was up on those biodiesel demand expectations and the strength in crude oil. That strength in crude oil was tied to the military action in Iran by the U.S. and Israel. Soybean meal futures were pressured by profit taking. U.S. export inspections were solid, primarily to China and Germany, but the 2025/26 pace continues to trail 2024/25 by a wide margin.

Corn was mixed. Rain forecasts for South America this week look mixed, favoring portions of northern Brazil over other areas of Brazil and most of Argentina. While many projections are still calling for a record corn crop in Argentina, some of the top end potential has likely been lost, and early conditions for much of Brazil’s second corn crop are too dry. The trade is also monitoring conditions in the U.S. ahead of spring planting. The USDA says 422.93 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production to start the year, a decline of 4% from December 2025 and 1% from January 2025. Distillers dried grains with solubles production was 1,778,261 tons, falling 8% on the month and 4% on the year. U.S. export inspections maintained their faster than last year pace, with Mexico and South Korea leading the way. The second half of the 2025/26 marketing year for corn, and soybeans, officially got underway March 1^st.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with the higher movement in the dollar during Monday’s session. Forecasts have more precipitation over the next few days in large portions of U.S. hard and soft red winter growing areas. It won’t be enough to reverse drought conditions fully but should be generally beneficial ahead of the crop emerging from dormancy in the very near future. Globally, some weather damage is likely in Europe and the Black Sea region, and Russia’s war on Ukraine is having an impact on shipping in the region. U.S. export inspections were below a year ago, but the 2025/26 pace is still ahead of 2024/25, with the Philippines and Tanzania leading the way last week. The final quarter of the 2025/26 marketing year for wheat started March 1^st. Saudi Arabia says it bought 794,000 tons of wheat without disclosing the origins. Hotter than average weather in India is expected to have an impact on winter planted crops, including wheat.