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2015 milk production and price estimates

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The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA on Monday lowered the milk production estimate for 2014 and the forecast for 2015. The 2015 production estimate was trimmed 500 million pounds from last month to 211.7 billion pounds.

Dairy product prices for 2015 were reduced to reflect larger carry-in stocks although demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year. Cash cheese price estimate was lowered 3.5 cents to between $1.59 and $1.67 per pound.  The butter price was reduced 6.5 cents to between $1.60 and $1.71 per pound.  The estimated nonfat dry milk price for 2015 was lowered 7 cents to between $1.27 and $1.33 per pound while the dry whey price was trimmed a penny at between 55 and 58 cents.

As a result: the 2015 Class III price was reduced 35 cents to between $16.20 and $17.00 per hundredweight. Class IV was cut 85 cents to between $15.60 and $16.50 putting the estimated 2015 all milk price at between $17.75 and $18.55 per hundredweight down 70 cents from the December estimate.  If realized, these would be the lowest milk prices since 2010.

 

Total U.S. milk production for 2014 is estimated to be 206 billion pounds which while 200 million pounds lower than last month’s estimate it is still 4.8 billion pounds more than produced in 2013. For 2014: cheese averaged $2.1551 per pound, butter averaged $2.1361, nonfat dry milk averaged $1.7682 and dry whey averaged $0.6538 per pound.  Class III milk averaged $22.34 per hundredweight in 2014, Class IV averaged $22.09 and the all milk price averaged $23.97.

 

Read the full NASS report here:

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