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2024 U.S. winter wheat estimate up on month, year

The USDA has increased its 2024 U.S. winter wheat production guess.

Production is now pegged at 1.295 billion bushels, 1% larger than the May guess and up 4% from 2023’s total of 1.248 billion bushels, due to a higher average yield projection. The average yield is seen at 51.4 bushels per acre, compared to 50.7 a month ago and 50.6 a year ago.

That includes 726.443 million bushels of hard red winter, primarily grown in the central and southern Plains, 342.052 million bushels of soft red winter, mostly grown in the eastern Midwest, southeast, and Delta regions, and a combined 226.39 million bushels of white winter, mainly in the Pacific Northwest. In 2023, HRW production was 601.017 million bushels, with soft red winter at 449.017 million and white winter at 197.714 million bushels.

The year-to-year rise in overall production is despite a decline in planted area, which has been canceled out by an expected lower rate of abandonment and that better yield thanks to improved growing conditions. 2024 harvested area is estimated at 25.198 million acres, compared to 24.683 million in 2023.

The 2024 U.S. winter wheat harvest is underway.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: 3.75 million bushels, compared to 9.405 million in 2023; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 57 a year ago; Harvested Area: 75,000 acres, compared to 165,000 last year

Illinois: 55.76 million bushels, compared to 67.86 million in 2023; Average Yield: 82 bushels per acre, compared to 83 a month ago and 87 a year ago; Harvested Area: 680,000 acres, compared to 780,000 last year

Indiana: 20.64 million bushels, compared to 30.82 million in 2023; Average Yield: 86 bushels per acre, compared to 84 a month ago and 92 a year ago;
Harvested Area: 240,000 acres, compared to 335,000 last year

Kansas: TOP: 282 million bushels, compared to 201.25 million in 2023; Average Yield: 40 bushels per acre, compared to 38 a month ago and 35 a year ago; Harvested Area: 7.05 million acres, compared to 5.75 million last year

Kentucky: 30.71 million bushels, compared to 40.48 million in 2023; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, compared to 83 a month ago and 88 a year ago; Harvested Area: 370,000 acres, compared to 460,000 last year

Michigan: 33.06 million bushels, compared to 46.48 million in 2023; Average Yield: 87 bushels per acre, compared to 85 a month ago and 83 a year ago; Harvested Area: 380,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year

Missouri: 34 million bushels, compared to 42 million in 2023; Average Yield: 68 bushels per acres, compared to 67 a month ago and 70 a year ago; Harvested Area: 500,000 acres, compared to 600,000 last year

Nebraska: 42.5 million bushels, compared to 36.96 million in 2023; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 42 a year ago; Harvested Area: 850,000 acres, compared to 880,000 last year

Ohio: 37.35 million bushels, compared to 53.1 million in 2023; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, compared to 84 a month ago and 90 a year ago; Harvested Area: 450,000 acres, compared to 590,000 last year

South Dakota: 42.12 million bushels, compared to 32.9 million in 2023; Average Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 52 a month ago and 47 a year ago; Harvested Area: 780,000 acres, compared to 700,000 last year

Tennessee: 23.56 million bushels, compared to 31.2 million in 2023; Average Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 80 a month ago and 80 a year ago; Harvested Area: 310,000 acres, compared to 390,000 last year

Wisconsin: 15.8 million bushels, compared to 17.48 million in 2023; Average Yield: 79 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a month ago and 76 a year ago; Harvested Area: 200,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year

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