News

2026 farm income picture cloudy

An agricultural economist at the University of Illinois says there’s an air of uncertainty over the 2026 farm income picture.

In a recent FarmDoc webinar, Nick Paulson says farmers saw early year gains in the commodity markets complicated by input price hikes caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

“There’s probably even less optimism than we would have had two months ago about further downward adjustments in those costs.”  He says, “In fact, all expectations would be for continued increases and some impact on the ‘26 crop year.”

He says additional federal assistance would change this year’s income picture, but…

“I think for 2026, we’re still looking at weaker returns.”  He says, “I think some of the higher corn and soybean prices we’ve seen in the last few months are going to be offset by some higher costs. In the absence of any additional ad hoc payment program, I think we’d be looking at ‘26 returns being even weaker than what we saw in 2025.”

Paulson says concerns are growing that continued rising fertilizer and fuels costs caused by the conflict will have an even larger impact on farmer incomes in the 2027 crop year.