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A more positive outlook for 2021

An ag economist says overall he’s optimistic for livestock producers in 2021.

University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says the first place to look is on the supply side.  “There are fewer cattle,” he says.  “We know that we have been decreasing cow inventory.  That’s going to give us less calf crop.  I think some of the drought issues we’ve seen in the Western part of the US only makes us accelerate and makes us lose a few more cows.”

He tells Brownfield continued economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic in countries like Japan and South Korea is also a positive news for demand.

And he says, China will also be a factor.  “I do believe that the Chinese will import more US beef in 2021,” he says.  “And I do think all those things in the second half of the year could be nice in terms of some higher beef and cattle prices.”

As for pork, Brown says he’s cautiously optimistic.  “Hogs and Pigs gave us this cut in sow inventory,” he says.  “If that plays out as we get into the latter part of 2021, maybe supplies of pork will be down.  I’m not ready to completely call that one yet, but at least it’s not the same growth that we’ve seen happening there.”

But, he says, that doesn’t mean producers shouldn’t implement risk management practices.  In fact, Brown says with commodity prices that have been increasing, cattle and hog producers face increasing pressure on their bottom line.