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A rapid transition to El Niño could worsen drought conditions for key Corn Belt states

The transition from a La Nina to an El Nino – and what that means for weather.

Meteorologist Matt Makens says a change in weather patterns is coming, but the question is when and how quickly it will happen.

“If the transition is somewhat slow, that would be an ENSO neutral type summer,” he says. “That’s what we had last summer. It was better for spreading water out to a lot of folks and perhaps longer into the season too.”

He tells Brownfield if it happens quickly, historically that’s not great for the growing season. “There was drought and it grew from Omaha to Des Moines, covered a lot of the central and northern corn areas,” he says. “With drought, because El Nino kicked in too quick, it shoved all the water to the west as quickly as it could.”

Makens says parts of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio remain in extreme drought, and for that to change, the cold air needs to move out. “So that we can start to soften up the ground and pick up some spring moisture,” he says. “The spring outlook is wetter than normal. It happens more frequently to get the storms in there. But unless the ground can accept that water, it’s just runoff.”

Makens spoke to Brownfield during the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

AUDIO: Matt Makens, meteorologist, CattleFax