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Ag cycles point to long stretch of depressed prices

The cyclical nature of agriculture can help project how long grain markets might remain in a slump. 

Northstar Commodity senior market analyst Mark Schultz says commodity prices are coming off a big runup similar to a surge in 1996.

“We saw corn go up to $4.60, we then sat into about a three to five-year period where prcies were depressed. Then we had the big runup in 2008, that was a short-lived one that only lasted a year and-a-half because then we got back into weather problems that escalated the market up.”

Speaking to Brownfield at Minnesota Farmfest in southwest Minnesota Wednesday, he said there was another multi-year downturn after 2012 when corn averaged $3.50 a bushel and soybeans ranged from $9.50 to $10.

“That’s an outside shot of what I’d see happen. If you do not have a weather problem and this crop does go to record levels and South America comes in, I’d say (those prices) are pretty much a given.”