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Ag economist concerned about input picture for 2027 crops

An agricultural economist at the University of Illinois says he’s concerned that climbing fertilizer prices may impact farmers’ ability to adequately manage crops in 2027.

Nick Paulson says a drawn-out conflict in the Middle East would seriously threaten global supplies.

“Even if the conflict was wrapped up here in the next couple of days, these higher prices tend to be persistent.”  He says, “We should be kind of expecting a higher nitrogen price heading into the pricing period for the 2027 crop.”

In a recent FarmDoc webinar, he says most producers typically book their fertilizer needs in the fall, so the recent price hikes are likely not being felt by many operations just yet.

“The bigger potential impact will be as we look ahead to the 2027 crop, particularly if some of these fuel cost increases translate into inflationary effects on inputs more broadly, even outside of nitrogen and other fertilizer products,” he says.

Paulson says despite recent rallies, commodity prices remain below break-evens, so additional increased expenses for inputs will tighten the financial squeeze being felt by producers.