Ag economist predicts corn, soybeans yields lower than USDA’s guess

Farmers Business Network is forecasting a four percent decrease in corn and soybean yields.

Ag economist Kevin McNew says the biggest cuts are in Kansas and Nebraska. “Some of the yields we’re seeing are really, really bad.  We’re hearing and seeing a lot of results from farmers just simply abandoning because there’s not a crop there. That will trim harvested acres as well as we go into future USDA numbers.”

He says a drop in overall corn production could impact feed costs in Kansas. “We think basis levels in that area will be super strong and are already starting to show real strength.  Cattle guys are starting to pull back and facing really hard economics and the ones who are going to need corn are going to find it very high priced.”

Its model-based yield forecast pegged corn at 170 bushels, down almost 6 bushels from USDA’s latest guess. Soybeans were seen at 50.7 bushels a decline of almost 3 bushels per acre.

McNew tells Brownfield yields in the Eastern Corn Belt will be below the trendline. “I mean maybe not as good as last year. Indiana and Ohio knocked it out of the park last year.  This year it’s more average but it’s nothing like the problems we’re seeing in the Western Corn Belt and Southwest Plains.”

Farmers Business Network is a farmer-to-farmer network and e-commerce platform based out of San Carlos, California.

McNew spoke with Brownfield at the 2022 Farm Progress Show in Boone, IA.

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