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Ag economist says it’s unlikely China will buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025

An ag economist at Ohio State University says he doesn’t expect China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before the end of the year. 

Ian Sheldon says there isn’t much incentive to make additional purchases, since China already has its necessary supplies. 

“I think a lot of this is going to be driven by what the Chinese government is doing in terms of pushing its state traders to import soybeans,” he says. “Going into the new year, it’s going to depend on private traders and the relative price of American soybeans versus Brazilian soybeans.”

He tells Brownfield the marketing year is winding down and importers are now facing shipping constraints.

“You can get shiploads of anywhere from 60 to 80,000 tons through the Panama Canal,” he says. “It would take 150 to 200 ship loads, depending on how large the vessel is that goes through the Panama Canal to hit 12 million tons.”

Recently released data from the USDA shows only two new export sales since last month’s meeting in South Korea. As of Tuesday, China has purchased just over a million tons of U.S. soybeans in the current marketing year. 

AUDIO: Ian Sheldon, Ohio State University