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Ag economist: soybeans likely secondary in U.S.-China trade talks

An ag economist with University of Missouri Extension says soybeans are likely still on the table when the U.S. and China meet at the end of October, but probably not as high on the list.

Ben Brown tells Brownfield “this go around I think it’s going to center on critical minerals and magnets. That’s what led to the escalation last week.”

Brown says the increased vessel transportation costs that went into effect this week will likely get attention.

“Bulk grain carriers are exempt,” he says. “While these fees don’t directly impact grains and oilseeds, it does have some spillover effects.”

He says the U.S. and China are likely a long way from reaching a comprehensive, long-lasting trade agreement, though smaller agreements are possible.

“However, I don’t know how quickly that will come for ag products,” he says. “I do think the administration is aware of the sentiment in farm country and desire of producers to be able to sell their product. It could be made, I just don’t expect it here in the short run.”

This is the time of the year where the U.S. sells more soybeans to China, but Brown says China has their soybean commitments booked until the end of November and possibly early December.

“They need about 400 million bushels of soybeans before the new crop Brazilian crop comes to market. We’ll see if we get any of that.”

He says increased demand from China isn’t an easy challenge to solve and prices are expected to stay bearish in the near-term.