All eyes on Thursday’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report

Rising input costs and demand uncertainties are a couple of the factors that have contributed to liquidation in the US hog herd. Allendale chief strategist Rich Nelson says looking ahead to Thursday’s report one question remains, “whether we’re going to stabilize this herd or start expansion”.

University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says he’s also watching to see if sow inventory starts to grow. “We’ve kind of been telling ourselves we’ve been sliding along sideways,” he says.  “And we have been doing that with a number of indicators on the hog side.”

Nelson says Allendale’s pre-report expectations peg both the September 1 hog herd and breeding herd as the smallest in the last five years.  “We see about a 1.2 percent year-to-year decline in the whole hog herd,” he says.  “On the breeding herd numbers, our estimates running about 0.4 percent below last year.”

He says prices would typically hit seasonal lows in the fourth quarter of the year, but the tighter supplies could shift the price picture.

AUDIO: Rich Nelson, Allendale

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