News

Analyst says the US cattle herd is still growing

An analyst with Rabo AgriFinance says the U.S. cattle herd is still expanding.

Don Close says up to one million cows could be added to the U.S. cattle herd over the next two years.

“With cow numbers peaking in 2018-2019, we don’t think we’ll see the peak in U.S. beef production numbers until 2020-2021 as the offspring of those cows work their way through the system,” he says.

He tells Brownfield although the industry has been expanding slowly, U.S. cattle numbers should stay above 30 million head, which he says is encouraging news for the industry.

“That will enable us to hold a production level that will support all the infrastructure of the feed yard structure and our packing structure to hold the U.S. industry together,” he says.

But, Close says trade remains critical and if there are any market disruptions it could cause cattle prices to tumble.

He says US beef exports have been holding around 10 percent of its annual production. But…

“The Longstanding industry goal to beat that 10 percent puts us back above where we were in 2003 before BSE ,” he says.

Close spoke to Brownfield last week at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s annual meeting in Kansas City.

Audio: Don Close, Rabo AgriFinance