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Analyst urges caution as China commits to major U.S. ag purchases

China has committed to buying more U.S. soybeans in the next three years, but Tommy Grisafi with Ag Bull Marketing tells Brownfield…

“Until it gets put on a boat and leaves the Pacific Northwest or other shores of the United States, we’re not really going to trust the China deal.”

Following a meeting between the U.S. and China on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China has agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans immediately and at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans each year for the next three years. On social media, Trump said China would buy massive amounts of soybeans, sorghum and other ag products.

Grisafi says soybean futures have responded mostly lower to the news and are now waiting for purchase confirmations, which could be difficult to verify without weekly USDA export sales data. But…

“We need to really see that basis firm up. We’ll see it firm in the Dakotas and Minnesota. If basis markets along the big rail systems improve, we’ll see China is at the PNW wanting soybeans. It will be real noticeable, real quick.”

The U.S. has agreed to reduce China’s tariffs by 10 percent and China is expected to resume buying U.S. ag products.