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Analysts watch closely as Trump hesitates on U.S.-China trade meeting

President Trump continues to go back-and-forth on whether the U.S. and China will meet to discuss trade in the next 10 days.

“We’re going to have a fair deal and I think we’re going to have a very successful meeting. Certainly, there are a lot of people that are waiting for it,” he says. “Maybe it won’t happen. Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say ‘I don’t want to meet, it’s too nasty.’ But it’s really not nasty, it’s just business.”

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag Risk Management says the grain markets are responding to the uncertainty.

“The idea that Trump was going to meet with Xi Jinping and they’re going to talk about soybean exports and trade at the end of the month, everytime that gets pushed back soybeans get under pressure.”

Martinson says farmers in the Northern Plains continue to store as many soybeans as possible waiting for basis levels and futures prices to improve. There’s optimism in farm country the U.S. and China can reach a deal that will move more ag products.

“And then, the rumor that China needs to buy for December and January is helping to put underlying support in the market, as well. But it’s really going to depend on what happens in these talks or whether they take place. That will dictate soybean prices moving forward in the next 10 days.”

In the meantime, Martinson say local soybean crush has helped improve basis in the Dakotas.

“At the two crush plants we have here, basis has been cut basically in half compared to the local elevator. There’s some demand out there yet, but many farmers are still harvesting corn and some of the later season crops. Not a lot of grain movement is happening right now.”

The U.S. and China are still scheduled to meet in South Korea the weekend of October 31.