Brazil’s soybean, corn crops shrink further

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA has lowered its soybean production projection for the fourth month in a row.

CONAB now sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 146.859 million tons, well below the USDA’s most recent guess of 155 million, 1.7% under February and 5% lower than 2023, with harvest past the halfway point. That’s closer to a number of recent private estimates, some of which are below 145 million tons.

Planting delays were an early issue and weather was mixed during key development phases, but this is still one of the largest soybean crops on record and Brazil will maintain their spot as the world’s leading exporter.

CONAB also lowered their corn production estimate, with the second crop pegged at 87.349 million tons, a decline of 0.9% on the month and 14.7% from last year, with planting nearly complete. Brazil’s combined corn crop is estimated at 112.753 million tons, which would be 14.5% smaller than 2023, compared to the USDA’s last projection of 124 million. The first crop is pegged at 23.413 million tons, 0.8% less than last month and down 14.5% from last year, with the third crop at 1.991 million tons, unchanged from a month ago and 7.6% below a year ago.

The next production updates from USDA and CONAB are both out April 11th.

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