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Chance of more China buys maintain soybean rally

A market analyst says the continued optimism that China could buy eight million metric tons of additional U.S. soybeans has kept prices stronger, longer than many expected.

“It’s been going since the first week of February.”

That’s when President Trump posted on Truth Social about a call he’d had with China with the news, which caused the soybean markets to move higher.

Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge tells Brownfield the market movement is a little bit of déjà vu, as President Trump prepares to meet with China at the end of March.

“In front of the meeting President Trump and President Xi had in South Korea, there was a whole lot of optimism going into that. We rallied and the funds bought pretty aggressively going into that. Then, they made an agreement and China started to buy. In the middle of November, as China was buying, we saw a lot of selling in the market. That’s called buy the rumor, sell the reality.”

Seifried says it’s unclear when the market optimism will fade, but he says now is the time when farmers should consider new crop selling opportunities.

“Generally by this time of the year, I’d like to see farmers 15 to 25 percent sold on new crop soybeans,” he says. “I think this year is a time when we should be looking at that more aggressively. In soybeans, specifically, because soybeans have enjoyed this rally. I mean, we’re more than $1 off the lows that we had from the beginning of the calendar year.”

He says the actual supply and demand balance sheet might not justify higher prices beyond current levels, unless there’s a catastrophe during the U.S. growing season.