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China deal or poor harvest could jolt soybean prices, analyst says

A market analyst suggests the soybean market is in a unique spot.

Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says a prolonged trade war with China would keep prices range-bound or lower.

“The bean market has, I think of all the markets out there (including) corn, beans and wheat, the bean market has the quickest potential to change not only price, but just change in perception quickly.”

He tells Brownfield a breakthrough with China would provide an immediate boost, as would harvest data indicating less than expected soybean yields.

“I think you’re going to find a lot of variability in the yield this year. That dry weather in August in Missouri all the way to the East Coast and up into Michigan is pretty devastating. And we’ve talked to a lot of farmers that said ‘well our beans are pretty good, I don’t want to complain. But they’re not what they look like.’ Or the yield isn’t there.”

Doherty says USDA’s large soybean carryout projection would be difficult to achieve if the national yield averages less than 53 bushels per acre.