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China demand, biofuels policy fuel better 2026 soybean profit outlook

An ag economist says the profitability prospects for the 2026 soybean crop have improved due to the recent uptick in soybean prices.

Ben Brown with the University of Missouri Extension tells Brownfield two factors have led to an increase in demand, providing the perfect storm to boost prices: biofuels policy and China’s follow through on purchase commitments.

“China’s purchase commitments for 2026 is 25 million metric tons of soybeans. In the last few days, they’ve come into the market and started buying to really start fulfilling that. There’s still a long ways to go. I’ve only calculated they have like 3.5 percent of the commitment on the books at this point. But again, the timing matches when we should start seeing signals and I think that’s brought some optimism into the market.”

Brown says rising input costs heading into 2027, including variable expenses like fuel and fixed costs like equipment and land, will offset some of the gains.

“We have to focus on innovation and thinking about doing things in ways that help reduce costs, not just be yield maximizations, but think about profit maximizing management practices.”

He says two ways farmers can do that is to continue closely manage their expenses and be disciplined in cost structures.

“Good farm management does not start in low periods. It actually starts with being disciplined during high farm income years. It is a whole lot easier to to continue to be frugal, if you will, than it is to all of a sudden switch to that environment.”

Brownfield interviewed Brown at MU’s Crop and Pest Management Field Day in mid-Missouri.