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China’s dairy purchases hard to predict

A dairy economist says recent milk powder sales to China are a good sign, but he’s not expecting China to be buying long-term.

Chuck Nicholson with the University of Wisconsin says, “I’d say that’s probably a blip rather than some kind of an indicator of a long term that we’re going to see coming.

Nicholson tells Brownfield there are several economic factors within China and political factors that will affect dairy exports to China. “Their economy is not in great shape. They have growth that is good for major developed country standards, but has not been really aligned with what they have seen in recent years and so there’s a lot of concern there, and I think that’s affecting purchases of a variety of imports including dairy products.”

China purchased some milk powder near the end of August, but their powder imports were at a twelve-year low and USDA predicts a 3% decrease for 2024, with a total of 425-thousand tons.