CONAB increases Brazil’s second crop corn guess

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA has raised its second crop corn production guess.

CONAB now has that second crop at 88.116 million tons, up 2.3% from May due to solid early yield numbers in the states that saw better development weather, with 7.5% of the crop harvested. That’s still 13.9% lower than 2023 because of lower planted area. Combined corn production is pegged at 114.144 million tons, with a first crop of 23.624 million tons and a third crop of 2.404 million tons. Combined and first crop production numbers are both up on the month and down on the year, while the third crop projection is above both the prior month and a year ago.

CONAB trimmed its outlook for soybeans slightly to 147.354 million tons, down 0.2% on the month and 4.7% below last year because of declines in yield and planted area.

Despite the year-to-year declines in corn and soybean production, Brazil’s expected to remain highly competitive on the export market, but that will also demand on domestic prices and how this year’s U.S. crops turn out.

CONAB also made a month-to- month cut in rice production, while raising the estimate for cotton. Winter wheat production is expected to be 9.065 million tons, 0.2% under the May guess, but potentially 12% larger than 2023.

CONAB’s next crop production projection is out July 11th.

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