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CONAB pushes Brazil soybean estimate higher

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA has raised its already record large soybean crop guess even further.

CONAB now has Brazil’s bean crop at 180.13 million tons, up 0.5% on the month as harvest winds down, and 5% larger than last year thanks to yield. That’s likely going to lead to even more competition for the U.S. on the export market, with 2025/26 sales currently pegged at 116 million tons, which would be 7.25% more than 2024/25.

Total corn production was 0.4% above the April estimate at 140.171 million tons, with a 0.6% month-to-month cut in the second crop due to weather issues canceled out by yield and planted area projections for the third crop. The corn total would be 0.7% below a year ago, but Brazil is expected to maintain a robust corn export program, while also increasing corn-based ethanol production. The first corn crop was 28.461 million tons, 14.1% greater than last year, with second crop currently seen at 105.455 million tons, dipping 0.6% on the month and 4.2% on the year, with a third crop of 3.255 million tons, rising 30.9% from April and 8.7% from 2025.

CONAB’s next round of numbers for Brazil is out June 11^th.