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CONAB raises Brazil soybean, corn guesses again

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA has raised its already record large corn and soybean production estimates.

CONAB now sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 154.811 million tons, 0.8% more than in April and up 23.3% from last year following an increase in planted area and better yields. The soybean harvest is nearly over with exports projected at a record 95 million tons, with Brazil holding most of the global market share due to a big price advantage. CONAB is also expecting big soybean meal and oil export sales as Brazil fills some of the vacuum left by Argentina’s much smaller crop.

Brazil’s second corn crop, the largest of the three, is pegged at 96.138 million tons, 0.9% higher than last month and 11.9% above a year ago, with most of the crop at the tasseling and ear filling stage. Total corn production is expected to be 125.536 million tons, which would be 11% larger than 2022, including a first crop of 27.049 million tons, an increase of 8.1%, and a third crop of 2.35 million tons, 6.2% higher. CONAB estimates new crop corn exports at 48 million tons, which means more competition for the U.S.

CONAB’s next round of projections for Brazil is out June 13^th.