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Cotton crop estimate down on month, rice up
The USDA slashed its 2025 U.S. cotton production guess while raising the outlook for rice.
Cotton is now seen at a total of 13.214 million bales, including 12.85 million bales of upland cotton, both down from July and 8% lower than 2024, with acreage and average yields below a year ago at 9.136 million acres for upland planted area and 7.219 million acres on upland harvested, for an average of 854 pounds per acre on upland. In 2024, upland production was 13.942 million hundredweight, with an average yield of 880 pounds per acre on planted area of 10.976 million acres and harvested area of 7.605 million acres.
That reduction for production and tighter beginning stocks pulled new crop stocks 100 million bales under last month to 3.6 million, canceling out a smaller export number. The average estimated 2025/26 farm price is now $.64 per pound, compared to $.62 a month ago and $.63 for 2024/25.
Rice production is pegged at 208.464 million hundredweight, 3.464 million above a month ago on larger acreage totals, now at 2.79 million for planted area and 2.73 million for harvested area, against a decrease in the average yield, down 109 pounds per acre to 7,636 pounds. Last year, production was 222.133 million hundredweight, with an average yield of 7,748 pounds per acre on planted area of 2.91 million acres and harvested area of 2.867 million acres.
New crop rice stocks were nearly unchanged on the month at 44.6 million hundredweight thanks to improved domestic and export demand expectations. The average 2025/26 farm price is estimated at $14.20 per hundredweight, compared to $14 last month and $15.10 for 2024/25.
The 2025/26 marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.
The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 12th.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Cotton: 1.4 million bales, compared to 1.788 million in 2024; Average Yield: 1,305 pounds per acre, compared to 1,341 a year ago; Planted Area: 520,000 acres, compared to 650,000 last year; Harvested Area: 515,000 acres, compared to 640,000 the year before
Rice: 92.175 million hundredweight, compared to 109.407 million in 2024; Average Yield: 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7.64 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.261 million acres, compared to 1.448 million last year; Harvested Area: 1.229 million acres, compared to 1.432 million the year before
Kansas: Cotton: 140,000 bales, compared to 201,000 in 2024; Average Yield: 747 pounds per acre, compared to 778 a year ago; Planted Area: 105,000 acres, compared to 131,000 last year; Harvested Area: 90,000 acres, compared to 124,000 the year before
Missouri: Cotton: 850,000 bales, compared to 1.241 million in 2024; Average Yield: 1,333 pounds per acre, compared to 1,320 a year ago; Planted Area: 350,000 acres, compared to 400,000 last year; Harvested Area: 335,000 acres, compared to 380,000 the year before
Rice: 12 million hundredweight, compared to 11.613 million in 2024; Average Yield: 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,540 a year ago; Planted Area: 214,000 acres, compared to 219,000 last year; Harvested Area: 208,000 acres, compared to 214,000 the year before
Tennessee: Cotton: 420,000 bales, compared to 548,000 in 2024; Average Yield: 1,061 pounds per acre, compared to 1,052 a year ago; Planted Area: 205,000 acres, compared to 265,000 last year; Harvested Area: 190,000 acres, compared to 250,000 the year before
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