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Crop production dynamics post-war in Ukraine?

An ag economist says an end to the war in Ukraine will likely put downward pressure on crop prices as land is returned to production.

Ohio State University professor emeritus Carl Zulauf tells Brownfield, “The history of warfare is that land will come back into production.”

“The question is how rapidly and, obviously, mines are a major impediment that have to be cleared before the land can be farmed.” he says.

He says combined crop production between the two countries has only declined about one percent since immediately before the war as lost acres in Ukraine have been offset by land and yield gains in Russia.

Ukraine has lost about 20 percent of its corn production, which if brought back Zulauf says, “That would have a significant negative impact on corn prices.”

“You would also expect Ukraine to be a pretty aggressive exporter after the war because they have to rebuild infrastructure,” he says.

 Zulauf says significant damage to grain storage and port facilities in Ukraine will likely mean a large dependence on rail export movement to start, which can be more costly.

He adds an end of war could lead to a reduction in tariffs and restrictions on U.S. imports of potash and other fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, potentially lowering input costs.