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Delayed October WASDE report could have far reaching impacts for U.S. agriculture

An ag economist at the University of Kentucky says a lack of updated information from the October supply and demand report could have far reaching impacts for U.S. agriculture in 2026. 

Grant Gardner says the ag industry is currently relying on private estimates for supply levels. 

“Each of these private estimates are going to collect yield data from different sources and they’re going to throw weather data into that model to try to estimate production,” he says. “You also have to try to decipher which estimate is the best. That makes it really difficult when most places base it off of the WASDE.”

He tells Brownfield balance sheets nationwide will have to adjust to the risk of mispriced grain and ongoing market volatility.

“We’re in that period where we have a low futures price, but a decent basis,” he says. “Maybe you take something like a deferred pricing contract and you try to wait for those prices to recover. But, you’re just betting on what yield is going to be in November.”

Gardner says the shutdown could also delay the November report, leaving the market to digest additional information leading to drastic changes in demand.

The federal government shutdown is in its third week with no signs of reaching a deal on a continuing resolution.

AUDIO: Grant Gardner, University of Kentucky