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Economist projects U.S. corn exports to increase without Brazil

University of Missouri economist Ben Brown says U.S. corn exports are likely to increase in the next several months.

He tells Brownfield Brazil’s second crop corn estimate won’t have much of an impact, but other international buyers will. “We’ve probably already seen the increase in U.S. exports that we were going to get from that Brazilian corn crop this year where we could see some additional exports above what we would’ve seen based on Brazil’s number is when we get into next spring,” Brown says.

CONAB projects second crop production at just over 60 million tons, a drop of 10% on the month and nearly 20% on the year.

Brown says the USDA supply and demand report lowered exports for Brazilian corn 5 million metric tons likely because of lower feed demand globally. 

He says Brazil is close to knowing what old crop corn production will be. “In my expectation this is the last big revision that we see out of Brazil just given the timing of the year for that Safrinha crop, second corn crop and even their third crop corn crop.”

Brown says he expects lower U.S. corn exports next year as other countries improve their corn production and yields while livestock breeders will keep the crop here.

Click here to listen to Brown’s full interview.

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