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Economist says ag trade deficit remains a concern in 2026 despite latest USDA report

An ag economist at Ohio State University says he’s concerned the record-high ag trade deficit could continue throughout 2026.

Ian Sheldon tells Brownfield, “As long as American consumers want to buy fruits and vegetables all year round in grocery stores, I think it’s unlikely that we’re going to see the trade deficit come down in the short term in a meaningful way.”

The USDA’s latest quarterly trade forecast says the ag trade deficit is expected to drop 18 percent to $37 billion in 2026.

Sheldon says tensions with China throughout 2025 has led to lost market share and an overall decline in agricultural trade.

“We did seem to be able to make up market share elsewhere, but that hasn’t been the case with soybeans,” he says. “Next year our number one export markets are most likely to be Mexico, Canada, and the EU.”

Sheldon says he’s monitoring how the current trade negotiations could impact ag exports in the new year.

AUDIO: Ian Sheldon, Ohio State University