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Economist says long-term tariff impacts won’t be clear for several years

A long-time agricultural economist says the full effect of the Trump administration’s use of tariffs won’t be felt for a few years.

Dr. David Kohl, professor emeritus at Virginia Tech University, tells Brownfield, “These tariffs aren’t agreements, and I’m being very blunt about it, they’re just temporary subscriptions, and they can be changed on a tweet.”  He says, “This is going to be evolving. What we’re doing is we’re losing market share. Look at soybeans. Look at corn. The global South has become more competitive.”

While the erosion of market share hurts demand, Kohl says the tariffs also have other impacts.

“Whether it was friend or foe, it’s how we kind of delivered those tariffs that have really hurt long-term relationships.”  He says, “And then if we import fertilizer or technology, those tariffs increase the capital investment and the cost of production.”

Kohl says the added costs and uncertainty come at a time when many grain farmers are struggling to break even. 

“The good managers are still making money, or if you’re in the grain industry, hitting break-even.”  He says, “But it requires what we call the boring basics. Knowing the cost of production, having a marketing and risk management program and executing it, monitoring your cash flows, and having a good, solid relationship with your lender.”

Brownfield spoke with Kohl at the 2025 American Bankers Association’s Agricultural Bankers Conference in St. Louis.  

AUDIO: Dr. David Kohl – Virginia Tech University