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Economist says many 2027 fertilizer decisions will be made soon

An ag economist says the U.S.-Iran conflict is not the only reason farmers and retailers are starting to think about their 2027 fertilizer needs.

Jacqui Fatka is the lead economist for farm supply and biofuels at CoBank. She tells Brownfield, “The concern is as we head into 2027, purchasing what needs to happen, because those decisions are going to be made this summer as we head into the fall. The duration of this conflict is really going to be the deciding factor on that.”

Fatka says the fertilizer market also faces another risk closer to home as the USMCA negotiations get underway this summer. “Fortunately, we get a lot of our potash from Canada but a lot of that is included in the USMCA. If, for some reason, the renegotiation, the review of that trade agreement goes sideways this summer, I’ve seen some who are encouraging to make sure that ag retailers lock in those supplies of potash yet this summer.”

Fatka says a recent National Corn Growers Association survey shows twice as many producers are concerned about the 2027 season compared to this year, and she believes that concern is justified.

Fatka says she’s seen fertilizer price forecasts as high as 110% higher for next year, and she encourages growers to talk to ag retailers soon to lock in a portion of their 2027 fertilizer needs.

AUDIO: Jacqui Fatka from CoBank discusses fertilizer prices with Brownfield’s Larry Lee.