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Economist says no big surprises in latest Cattle on Feed report

A livestock economist says there still aren’t clear signs the cattle herd is growing.  Scott Brown says beef cow slaughter for August dropped 22 percent from year-ago levels.  “But if you asked me to give you January 1 beef cow inventory, I would probably still say a lower herd,” he says.  “We’re beginning to slow the decline, but I’m not suggesting a higher beef cow inventory for January 2025.”

He tells Brownfield cattle placed into feedlots, and on feed, both came within 0.1% of pre-report expectations.  “Confirmation that I think we continue to get tighter as we go forward is still what we see out of the latest Cattle on Feed report,” he says. 

However, he says without the July Cattle Inventory report, there’s a lot of uncertainty, and the analysts providing those pre-report guesses aren’t on the same page. “If you look at the range of pre-report estimates for August, it ranged from 93.5% to 102.3% of year-ago levels,” he says.  “That’s indicative of what we’ve been seeing: that it’s hard to get your arms around placement numbers.”

Brown says as long as demand holds, the fundamentals are supportive of higher cattle prices.