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Economist says there is some potential for growth in the cattle herd

A livestock economist says the slowdown in beef cow slaughter could be a sign that herd liquidation is coming to an end.

University of Kentucky’s Kenny Burdine says that through May, beef cow slaughter has declined 18 percent from this time last year.  “We probably came into 2024 and 2025 with a little bit younger cow herd,” he says. “We made a lot of the easy culling decisions. So it should probably be, on average, a more efficient, higher-quality cow herd. I think both of those things would suggest that you might see lighter culling.”

He tells Brownfield that calf prices at this level give producers options. “Weaned calves make decisions on cows,” he says.  “And let’s be honest, hold everything else constant, with this calf market. As strong as it is, you’re going to lean towards trying to get another calf out of those cows as valuable as these calves are right now.”

Burdine has maintained that the industry has been stuck in the liquidation phase. “But if we see an increase in beef cow numbers heading into 2026, which I think is possible, I think it’ll be very small,” he says. “If we do, does that start the expansion phase? I guess the answer is yes, but I think it’s not going to be because of heifer retention.”

He says next month’s Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory report, which come out July 25^th, will provide information that will indicate if the cattle industry has started to expand.