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Economist says wide spread expansion still not happening in the cattle herd

A livestock economist says the cattle industry isn’t showing any signs of significant expansion.

University of Missouri professor emeritus Scott Brown says the percentage of heifers on feed is still too high.  “Not even a tick down in terms of what we’ve been seeing,” he says.  “So 40% of the On Feed inventory, for October 1 was keeping very near where we were three months ago.”

Prices remain at or near record levels, and while many would think that would spur herd expansion, it hasn’t.  Brown says there’s not an easy answer as to why.  “Dry weather in some parts of the country has come back to make people question how quickly they want to grow,” he says.  “When you have prices where they are today, sometimes it’s better off to let somebody else own those heifers.”

He tells Brownfield beef cow slaughter has dropped significantly, it’s down more than 16% from September 2023.  “I’m not sure that still is a big enough drop in beef cow slaughter for a large increase in beef cow inventory January 1, 2025,” he says.