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Economist sees continued downward pressure on commodity prices in 2026

An ag economist expects downward pressure on commodity prices to continue in 2026.

Matt Erickson with Terrain says global corn supplies should remain plentiful.

“I mean 2.15 billion bushels, and again this could change in future WASDE’s, but an over 2 billion bushel carryout is going to put some stress on the ’26, ’27 balance sheet. Demand still remains relatively strong on the corn balance sheet, which is good.”

He tells Brownfield there are two bearish factors for the soybean market in the year ahead.

“With regard to whether or not China is going to live up to their commitments, I think that needs to be on the administration to make sure (China) can deliver that to U.S. soybean producers. But you also have a massive crop coming out of Brazil.”

Erickson says a proactive risk management approach is imperative as growers look for ways to be profitable next year.

Brownfield interviewed Erickson at the 2025 National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in Kansas City last week.