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EIA: U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production capacity expected to pick up

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says sustainable aviation fuel production could increase to nearly 30,000 barrels per day by the end of the year if additional capacity comes online.

University of Illinois Ag Economics Professor Scott Irwin says two new plants won’t dramatically change the SAF production capacity.

“It has to start to go up from somewhere, but it’s still very small.”

The EIA says Phillip’s 66 Rodeo Renewed project in California is expected to produce up to 10,000 barrels per day of SAF this summer and Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur, Texas SAF project is expected to produce about 15,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.

But Irwin says a lot can happen between now and the end of the year.

“We’ll have to see if these plants can be made to work, the engineering is well done and plants operate as expected. It can easily be something that’s overlooked in thinking about something new like SAF.”

The EIA is forecasting U.S. production of other biofuels to increase by about 50% this year, which includes SAF and renewable diesel. Irwin says some companies have been talking about switching renewable diesel refineries to SAF production facilities.

“That could cause some jumps in SAF capacity that aren’t anticipated, due to the oversupply of renewable diesel.”

He says large quantities of biofuels to SAF in the future will require incentives to ramp up production, like a mandate, and he says the market growth for SAF will be a marathon, not a sprint.

The EIA says about 1.6 billion barrels per day of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the U.S. last year and they predict U.S. jet fuel demand in 2050 to exceed 2 million barrels per day.

That’s due to recent investments made in SAF in the Renewable Fuel Standard, tax credits and state programs incentivizing fuel usage. The White House also set a goal of meeting 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050.