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Farmers feeling the pinch as U.S.-China trade uncertainty persists

A market analyst says the recent back-and-forth between the U.S. and China is getting frustrating.

Garrett Toay with Ag Trader Talk says “this whole trade war is frustrating, because farmers are already pinched because of high input prices. But it’s an opportunity missed, because prices, in theory, should be higher than where they are now.”

He says U.S. farmers want to see a trade deal, but it’s unclear how soon that will happen.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the United States was considering terminating business with China dealing with cooking oil and other elements of trade, as retribution for not buying U.S. soybeans. He said the U.S. can easily produce its own cooking oil.

Toay says it’s not a serious threat, and comparing the two markets is like comparing apples to oranges.

“Last year, in 2024, China purchased $12 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S. and imports of used cooking oil from China was only about $1.2 billion worth. The mechanisms to limit cooking oil imports has already been put into place with the changes in the 45z tax credit.”

He said limiting foreign feed stocks shut down used cooking oil imports.

Toay says the commodity markets haven’t responded to the latest social media post, but the markets have responded to recent comments about U.S. and China trade negotiations.

“On Friday, when President Trump threatened to cancel and not meet with Xi, that set the soybean market tumbling. We haven’t really recovered from that, per se. I think the market is waiting for some sort of response from China saying “all is good” with the trading relationship.”

Hear the interview.