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Fed rate debate creates uncertainty for agriculture

A market analyst says questions about where interest rates are headed continue to weigh on the ag economy.

Tommy Grisafi with Ag Bull Trading says it’s an issue farmers and ranchers need to be monitoring closely.

“Interest rates are exploding,” he said. “We had a Fed meeting, we have a new Fed Chair Warsh. The bond market exploded higher which means yields exploded higher and the bond market went down. With that it’s a very interesting dynamic.”

He tells Brownfield, “You have a farmer who is paying really high input prices and now you’re starting to see interest rates go up. That’s tough. As someone who has traded bonds, I think it’s the one thing that’s overlooked.”

Grisafi says the Federal Reserve recently held interest rates at their current range with the vote featuring three dissents.

“That was three Fed governors that wanted higher rates. With that, that means there is a chance of higher rates and that’s what made the bond market sell off.”

Grisafi says the three Fed officials backing a rate hike cite persistently high inflation.

He spoke to Brownfield at the 2026 Ag PhD Field Day in South Dakota.