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Fertilizer expert: Fall supply concerns loom for nitrogen and phosphate

A fertilizer market advisor says farmers should be in for a good fall application season but there are concerns about nitrogen and phosphate supplies.

Josh Linville with StoneX tells Brownfield anhydrous ammonia supplies are good now but tightening up in some areas.  “We have heard some scattered reports of northern anhydrous points already talking allocation.  (It’s a) big run and obviously colder up there and being able to get started early, so they’ve been going for a little bit longer and they’re saying listen, we’re already having those conversations pop up.”

Linville says it appears most everything the Midwest is going to need for the fall application season is in place and ready to go, but a U.S. manufacturer is off-line during peak demand season.  “There was an explosion at a Yazoo City, Mississippi plant.  That facility mainly upgraded anhydrous into ammonium nitrate and into UAN.  The upgrade lines are obviously off-line.  Anhydrous sounds like it’s still being produced.”

Linville says phosphate demand is low but so are supplies.  He says five countries control 90% of the phosphate exports and China cut exports in half.  “We’ve got tariffs, duties, or the threat of sanctions on four of those top five, so we’ve blocked most of the world from coming here.”

But Linville says phosphate demand has also been poor.  “Rightfully so.  Any farmer in the U.S. looking at the price of phosphate and then turn around and look at the price of their grain, it’s not a good move.  It shouldn’t be.  It’s a terrible situation with some of the worst values we’ve ever seen between the two of them.”

Linville says if U.S. farmers decide they want phosphate fertilizer, he’s not sure if they will be able to find it.  He says if demand stays low, U.S. production could probably cover U.S. phosphate demand but if demand picks up, he’s not sure where those needed tons will come from.  He says farmers who want phosphate need to contact suppliers immediately and hope they can get some.

AUDIO: Josh Linville from StoneX discusses the fertilizer outlook with Brownfield’s Larry Lee