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Fertilizer price spike could shift crop rotations in 2026

A market analyst says the run-up in fertilizer prices due to the Middle East conflict may have some farmers reconsidering their crop rotations this year.

Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners says producers who are trying to improve margins may plant more soybeans. “The hardest part for me is to know where our starting point is and where we’re coming from. You’ll hear a lot of people start at 94 (million acres) and then bring that down. I think that number is higher at 95.5 or 96 (million acres) and now we’re bringing that down somewhere around 94.”

He tells Brownfield it wouldn’t take much to see a 1-million-acre reduction. “For someone who is producing about 500 acres, that only takes about a 5 acre change. We know that no individual farmer would just adjust 5 acres. It depends on the individual field size like if it’s 160 acres, 80 acres or if its 40 acres.”

Nebraska farmer Clay Govier says he doesn’t anticipate changing his rotation but is cutting back on his nutrient plan. “You can’t even buy fertilizer right now and I think that’s the bigger concern for this coming crop in terms of what we’re going to do for fertility options.”

Peterson says the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report should provide a clearer picture of how big the change could be. The report will be released on March 31 at 12 ET/11 CT.