News

Fertilizer prices surge as Hormuz closure enters fifth week, analyst says

A fertilizer market analyst says prices remain stubbornly high, offering little relief for farmers heading into the growing season.

“It’s getting to the point where farmers are throwing their hands in the air and saying, ‘I don’t know what you want me to do,’” said Josh Linville with Stone X Group.

He tells Brownfield the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is entering its fifth week.

“Since the day before the attacks began, I think we’ve seen urea prices up some 60%,” he said. “I know anhydrous has been up substantially and UAN is following urea quickly. Phosphate hasn’t been up nearly as much even though I still feel like the impact there has been even worse, but it was already incredibly high priced.”

Linville says he’s concerned the issue could carry over into the 2027 growing season.

“Fifty percent of the world’s tradeable sulfur comes through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “That’s one of your two biggest variable cost inputs into phosphate, so it really makes it hard to see phosphate prices falling. This is not a story to be taken lightly. This is a situation we’ve never seen before.”

He says farmers need to be communicating with their suppliers on a consistent basis.

Josh Linville: