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Former USDA economist explains what’s driving the U.S. ag trade deficit

A better understanding of the U.S. ag trade deficit.

Former USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber says there’s a common misconception that the imbalance is a result of poor competitiveness. “What is does say is that what we’re exporting right now is facing really low prices. If you look at our export volumes, they’re quite comparable from where they’ve been the last few years.”

He tells Brownfield the value of products the U.S. purchases also plays a large role. “Yes, imports are going up, but we’re importing a lot of things like beer, distilled spirits – those are all considered agricultural imports.  We import a lot counter seasonal fruits and vegetables that we don’t grow during the winter.”  

And he says, “We have blueberries and raspberries year-round. Those are good things from an American consumer perspective. We also import a lot of import a lot of goods that we use here in agricultural processes. We import raw coffee. We roast it and produce coffee, and we do that for cocoa and chocolate. We do it for feeder cattle that we bring in from Mexico and Canada.”

Speaking recently at a trade symposium at the University of Nebraska, Chief ag negotiator Julie Callahan, said that the deficit improved from $6.5 billion in January 2025 to $1.75 billion in January of 2026.

Glauber says expanding market access should always be the priority. “That’s where the problem has been that our exports have really suffered. They have suffered both from low prices and then unfortunately one of the consequences of the trade war is we saw the loss of a major market of ours – China – for about 12 months.”

He says he’s cautiously optimistic that market access could improve with new trade agreements from last year.

Brownfield interviewed Glauber at the Yeutter Institute Symposium at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.