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Grain markets are being driven by demand, trade and geopolitics

A commodities economist says demand, not weather, has been driving the grain markets.

Arlan Suderman with StoneX Group says the heat dome hasn’t been a major threat to the Corn Belt, and attention is shifting to China as they follow through on their purchase commitments.

“They’re behind some recent years, but they’re heading in the right direction at a time that they need to be. How long they keep on that path isn’t known yet.”

Suderman says he thinks the strong demand will continue as long as President Trump and Xi Jinping meet this year.

There are also escalating geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region.

“Neither side looks like they’re on the cusp of crying uncle at this point. They’re just going to keep escalating. The more they escalate, the more that involves the grain and oilseed markets. That would be a positive for prices as we go forward.”

Suderman says stronger renewable fuel demand, and trade policy are also being closely monitored.