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Herd liquidation might be slowing, but expansion isn’t underway

A livestock economist says the percentage of heifers on feed indicates there’s no major expansion happening in the U.S. cattle herd. Kenny Burdine is with the University of Kentucky. “Heifers as a percent of total On Feed inventory as of April 1 of this year, forgive me for the precision, but it is 37.6%,” he says.  

He tells Brownfield the percentage of heifers on feed remains much higher than what is typically seen during herd growth. “In expansionary times, and we’re holding back a lot of heifers you tend to see that in the low 30% or south of 35%,” he says.

The current percentage of heifers on feed is about one point lower than it was in January of this year and one point below year-ago levels. But, Burdine says, “It may suggest that liquidation may be starting to slow to some extent. But it certainly is not painting a picture of a widespread herd retention.”

In addition to cattle prices and demand strength, Burdine says weather will play a big factor in any potential expansion in the cattle herd this year.