News

Hog inventory numbers point to tighter supplies

The USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report is pointing towards tighter supplies in the coming months.

The March to May pig crop was down 3% on the year 33.584 million head with a 3% decline in sows farrowed and a slight reduction in the number of pigs saved per litter, from 11 to 10.95.

Farrowing intentions for June through August are expected to be 4% lower than the same period a year ago at 3.115 million head, with the USDA projecting a 2% decrease September through November farrowings at 3.084 million head.

The U.S. inventory of 75.653 million head on June 1^st, 2021 was up 1% from March 1^st, 2021, but down 2% from June 1^st, 2020.

The U.S. breeding and market herds were also up on the quarter but down on the year. The breeding inventory was 6.230 million head and the market inventory was 69.423 million head, both 2% less than last year. For the market category, by weight, hogs and pigs weighing less than 50 pounds were 21.474 million head and the 50 to 119 pound category was 19.349 million head, both 3% lower, with the 120 to 179 pound herd at 15.010 million head and the 180 pound and heavier inventory at 13.589 million head, both down 2%.

The numbers look neutral to bullish for prices because of the year to year decrease for inventory and the projected decline in farrowing intentions, but that will also partially depend on sustained consumer and export demand.