News

Hog supply squeeze to tighten

If the numbers in Friday’s hogs and pigs report are accurate, the hog supply squeeze in 2014 might be even tighter than anticipated.

The report put the all hogs and pigs inventory at 65.94 million head, down one percent from last year.  That’s a bigger drop than analysts expected to see.

The breeding inventory number, at 5.76 million head, was down one percent from last year.  That number was a big surprise, as analysts on average anticipated a one percent increase in the breeding herd.

The market hog inventory was estimated at 60.2 million head, down one percent from last year and in line with trade expectations.

The September-November pig crop number was down slightly from 2012, while analysts were expecting that number to increase. December-February farrowing intentions were up one percent, with March-May intentions up 1.4 percent.

The report also provided a better picture of the impact of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv).  Although the pigs saved per litter number for the quarter set a new record of 10.16, a closer look at the numbers reveals that the number has been dropping over the past four months—from 10.38 pigs per litter in August to 10.04 in November.