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Increased productivity outweighs cuts to breeding herd in latest USDA report

University of Missouri’s livestock economist Scott Brown says hog producers could face a little more price pressure in the near-term. “Breeding inventory that’s down from where we were a year ago by one percentage point,” he says.  “That’s a little above pre-report estimate but not much. I think when you look at then some of the total market hog inventory, that’s where we see perhaps some of the bigger numbers.”

He tells Brownfield while overall sow numbers were down slightly, some states had a more noticeable decline. “Missouri came in with 400,000 head of breathing inventory on September 1,” he says.  “That’s actually 7% below.  I think it incorporates some of the facilities that have closed over the last few months.”

But, he says it’s a different story in other areas. “You know we have cases where Illinois that is up 14% in terms of breeding inventory,” he says.  And, Brown says productivity continues to improve.  “A 1% decline in breeding inventory probably won’t mean a lot to the overall inventory of pigs if we continue that kind of growth in pigs per litter,” he says. 

He says it’s difficult for the hog industry to push inventories lower, even when margins are tight.