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Low grain prices leading to lack of fertilizer purchases

A fertilizer market analyst says many growers have been holding off on fertilizer purchases.

Josh Linville with StoneX Group says poor commodity prices have reduced farmer confidence. “Values are down across the board, and this is deeply impacting farmer profitability. That’s certainly become a big discussion point in the fertilizer market. How much money do these guys have to spend on fertilizer for this fall, this winter, and for next spring?”

He tells Brownfield few producers have locked in supplies for the spring of 2025. “If it was the last few years, we’d already be there. Because the income had been so solid and grain prices had been so solid, we already saw people stepping in and locking stuff up for next spring for things like potash. This year, it’s anybody’s guess.”

Linville says the lack of purchases has put retailers in a bind. “There’s quite a few things going on globally from a supply side that really should be rallying the nitrogen and phosphate markets, but that fear of the lack of income is really keeping everything quiet for the moment.”

He says he expects a sizeable demand cut for phosphate this fall.