Lower cheese prices could offset milk supply reduction efforts

The USDA expects milk production declines for this year and next because of reduced cow numbers and output.

The department’s December supply and demand report lowered butter and cheese price forecasts for this year based on recent prices. The nonfat dry milk price was raised, and whey was left unchanged. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts were lowered because of lower cheese and butter prices.

For 2024, the USDA lowered its expectations for cheese prices, while butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices were raised. The Class III price was reduced because of lower cheese prices. The Class IV price was raised following higher butter and nonfat dry milk forecasts.

The all-milk price for this year declined by a dime to $20.60 per hundredweight and the 2024 forecast declined by 55 cents to $20.25.

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