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Market analyst expects minimal yield changes in USDA report

A grain market analyst says she doesn’t expect USDA to have enough harvest data to make drastic changes to U.S. crop yields in the upcoming monthly report.

Kristi Van Ahn with Van Ahn and Company says historically, USDA’s October supply and demand report offers some kind of yield adjustment for the new crop. However…

“We’ve had slow enough harvest progress in some of the key areas where we won’t see massive changes.”

Van Ahn says it would be different if the data USDA used in the report was from this week. U.S. soybean yields are mixed so far and despite low yield expectations from the drought, she says corn is coming out of the field better than expected in many areas.

“That doesn’t mean great yields, but I think farmers are being pleasantly surprised by the yields.”

Van Ahn says the U.S. supply picture should be clearer with the updated stocks information from late September and she’s interested to see USDA’s expectations for U.S. soybean demand.

“USDA has done a good job of paring down demand to try and keep us above a 200 million bushel carryout. Exports have picked up pace, to a degree and crush has been strong. I think this gives them an opportunity to take those extra old crop bushels and build them back into demand and have us in a situation not much different than a month ago.”

USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates will be out Thursday